How Much Pain For The Housing & Jobs Markets Lies Ahead In 2023? | Mike "Mish" Shedlock

45 Comments

1. Coming onto Wealthion as a self-described home flipper? Might as well have said, Hi guys, I'm Satan 🙂 Just kidding (partly). To my real point, regarding those "20%" Housing predictions: I personally do not think there is such a thing as a "20% housing decline". Not with the ways things currently work in the US anyway. Either it's going to be 10-15% down or 30% down. The reason being, once 20% is confirmed in the mainstream news, millions of (young) people will strategically default…taking the market to -30%, maybe even -35%! Great show.

2. Many people are retiring so will be lots of jobs. Also money will flow in from Europe all good

3. Wells Fargo has 13 percent fewer employees than in 2020.

4. Hey. Love Wealthion.

5. We need to stop living by the laws of the global elite and start living by spiritual moral values, and we can do this only when we unite! Right now an international social project, the Creative Society, is gaining momentum in every country all over the planet! People from different countries and different religions are uniting to build a just society! This is the only way we can change everything! THE CREATIVE SOCIETY!!!

6. George Gammon is pointing to a statement at the Bank of International Settlement's website which says that off-the-record non-bank credit swaps (with swap banks in the middle) are now at a 100 Trillion with rollovers to begin early 2023.These events have the potential to cause a global financial upheaval which will be a thousand times the magnitude of the 2008 derivatives collapse.
   Could you, please, look into this and perhaps invite someone from BIS, or an expert on US and global credit swaps who could educate us on what is about to happen?
   Thanks Much for all your work in bringing us priceless information from the experts you select.

7. Sad I missed the live stream. Mike says boomers retiring will keep the jobs market strong. Won't boomers dying off, pop the housing bubble as well?

   I'm seeing boomers lose a spouse and then give up their home. They either remarry or move in with a friend or family member. Imagine that on a much larger scale as time passes.

   Blackrock wrote an article on the Silver tsunami. Do we really need the feds to increase interest rates to control housing prices?

8. People do not listen, especially if they do not like what you are saying. Facts or not.

9. Am I truly listening to someone speaking like I did in the second grade? And I um um um was held back due to my speech. Oh poor Elon speaks like I did. I guess I was over intelligent when I was young, and everyone around me was just stubborn and bullies!

10. The guy who claimed expertise about the housing, went for ever to say nothing. Here is the answer for Mish's question. If we go 5% and if you add bank premium the ratio of median income to median house price payment will plunge to 1.8 (now we are at 3.2+). If you want to math I can give it to you.

11. Lol cannot wait for this house flipper at 55 minutes to get absolutely rekt. It’s people like him ruining the real estate market and only until speculators are rekt in this mkt will things go back to normal.

12. This house flipper guy is delusional "Major uptick" . Yeah ok. The numbers tell a different tale.

13. The guy with the second to the last question was basing his comments on anecdotal info at best, just absolutley delusional or bs'ing Adam and Mish at worst.

    I'm not sure how he ties 30 year mortgages in with the rates the Fed controls. If banks want to lend money for 30 years at 6%, that's their right. And If inflation get's back to 2%, the net 4% real rate for 30 years is not a bad deal. Many people would take that. Has nothing to do with the short term.

    As Mish said, to everyone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

    With inflation still close to 8% (and real inflation between 15 and 20%), the Fed isn't even close to cutting rates.

    Not only has the stock market another 50% down to go, but so do housing prices as well.

14. This is not a recession or a depression it is a total shut down.

15. Skip Twitter – YouTube is the place.

16. The fix and flipper on this episode is playing with 🔥🔥🔥. What he is doing is called wishful thinking. I'm a real estate professional myself and I have seen what rising rates have done so far to the economy and it's not up for debate that things will get a lot worse.

17. Why is the guest not speaking so much. Lance doesn't even know what he's talking about

18. Stock market started dropping in 2000 = 2022, after 22 years history repeats itself. What is more scary is that what happened in 2001, the next year. Good luck 2023.

19. Interest rates will have to drop to 4.75 atleast to make houses affordable at these prices. Don't forget wages went up atleast 4 to 6 percent.

20. They say they brought inflation down. Just went to Home Depot to buy a few items. Have you seen price of an appliance say refrigerator. I paid 900 dollars for refrigerator 3 yrs ago. This same one costs atleast 1600 to 2000.

    Saw rider mower that costs 1260 dollars in 2020
    Costs now atleast 1800 or above.

    So how is the Fed saying inflation is 10 percent.

    Atleast I see 20 percent inflation. Food, Housing, Auto take up most of cost. Homes up almost 80 perecent. Food up atleast 40 percent, Autos up 20 percent thanks to weak yen.

21. What a great interview!

22. How will we ever know the real employment report? From what I read, there is no way Biden is telling the truth. (heaven forbid that they will admit a problem during their reign!). All we hear about is thousands of layoffs every week, but the good ol' Biden employment numbers are awesome! Sick.

23. Me thinketh always enjoy these., comprehensive and concise……..podcasts!@!?😎🙂

24. The guest doesn’t seem to be able to articulate his thoughts very well. I will click off now and I’m only 10 minutes in. That’s a shame.

25. 3, if not more, Generations have never known the life experience of what they are blindly FOMO buying into.

26. thank you

27. Is the left side of you're face the best?

28. I was at open houses last weekend – the homes were in very nice towns but on the lower end. The open houses were packed. However, at some of the smaller homes, most people were older – probably over 65.

    To be clear, when I say that the open houses were packed , I mean that it was difficult to walk through the house without bumping into other families. There weren’t lines down the sidewalk like there were last winter.

29. Saw on a Tweet that Fauci's daughter worked at Twitter.

30. This talk was absolutely NUTS! More please!

31. @Adam Taggart You're doing a great job here and appreciate all your hard work and excellent effort. Agree with your bearish recession outlook over Mish's but enjoyed him as a guest too.

32. 23rd, 6 December 2022

33. The Lance guy admits he can't answer any question on house prices and could barely give an opinion so why have him on!

34. Capitalism destroys every nation that uses it

35. Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️ great content looking very much for a slowing world economy event about to hit all of us tight the belt and hang ON cheers Adam from Frank G

36. We need higher interest rates to discourage foreign investment in US real estate, institutional buyers, wasteful government spending and speculative investment and worse. Time that savers can get some return on bonds.
    There is so many government support spending for people who would rather not work that likely our employment numbers are useless.

37. Ahhhh, the audio is so much better, part was was hard to listening to with all of that clipping on Mike's side. Thanks for fixing that!!

38. Thank you for this great conversation!!

39. ☆☆☆Real Estate Question Answered>>> In 2018/19, real estate and new home building was FALLING fast!! This was due to that it was the end of the cycle and the Fed was trying to normalize rates and bleed thier balance sheet off. They barely got to 2 3/8s % and barely got the balance sheet down to 3.8 trillion from 4.5 trillion!!! 2020/21 was a 8 Trillion plus Money Printing Extravaganza that created MASSIVE Manias in buying !! I've never seen so many suckers buy a TOP in my life. Insanity. We have almost doubled prices and rents in SW Florida !! I have a few dozen rentals and I'm preparing to go to half!! What ever they state the official lies/stats are, double or triple them…. We were already heading for a severe resession in 2018/19, and 2020/21 fiasco was a stay of execution–>>> now we will finish that cycle and it will be horribly worse!!
    The way numbers will stay up, is of they print tens of trillions again and DESTROY you purchasing power. That's the only way these numbers will stay up

40. A healthy spike of retirees will cause a spike in open positions. This means that open positions will be available to workers that were laid off from other jobs and those that have been looking for work. Is this correct? If so, would Powell need to extend his fiscal tightening in order to have a slowing economy?

41. I'm retiring and need to buy a home when can I jump in

42. When to buy a home

43. It’s good to see all the recent Wealthion conversations touching on the status of commercial and residential real estate. There could be a crisis that emerges in these areas.
    It strikes me that only the Wealthion guests/experts have a handle on all the concerning data on multiple fronts. Including jobs potentially.

44. When the bear takes a bite out of your ass don't try to go back and pull
    it out of the bears mouth – limp away and be happy that is all you lost.

45. I'd say the pain will be 10 out of 10. Excruciating. Debilitating. Unbearable.

    Worse than having an elephant sit on your lap kind of pain.

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